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“战争狂人”博尔顿被排挤了特朗普与金正恩“板门店会面”时,他竟然不在场

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Wang Jin Associate Research Fellow, Institute of American Modern International Relations, USA

US National Security Adviser Bolton recently issued a new warning to Iran, saying that Trump’s decision at the last minute not to retaliate against Iran’s shooting down of U.S. drones should not be seen as a sign of “weakness”. He also said, “ In the Middle East, no one has granted them a hunting license." "Our army has been rebuilt and is ready."

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Recently, Bolton was somewhat hurt, because Trump stopped the action at the last moment of his use of force against Iraq, and things did not develop in the direction of the military he wanted. His recent remarks show that he is still reluctant to give up his tough stance on using Iran to push Iran to achieve "regime change." In an interview with Fox TV, he said, "Before these things, I have said it for more than a decade. The US publicly declared policy should be to overthrow the Iranian Mullah regime."

In the same battle with Bolton, there is US Secretary of State Pompeo. Pompeo also advocated tough on Iran and used military means to compromise Iran. He made 12 requests to Iran to demand that Iran must meet these requirements before the United States considers lifting the sanctions. His goal is to undermine what he called Iran's "expansionist foreign policy." The request he made is basically related to Iran’s own security interests and the fundamental issue of political stability. Iran will not accept it diplomatically, and military action will become a realistic option for Pompeo.

Now, the decision-making status of this "two groups of the two groups" faces a series of challenges.

First, there is a risk of contradiction and differentiation within the “Mengwu Duo” group.

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Bolton and Pompeo are not in character, which is already the secret of Washington. Bolton is proud, conceited, insists on his own views and is not close to human feelings, and often has an open quarrel with Pompeo, who is equally strong.

xx而这两者有更重要的结构性矛盾。关于外交支配地位的争议。这也是自第二次世界大战后美国国家安全委员会成立以来国家安全顾问和国务卿之间难以解决的系统性问题。这两个“强者”之间的矛盾更为明显。

相对而言,Pompeo处于比Bolton更好的位置,因为他更了解总统的想法并将其转化为政策,这让特朗普更加信任。国防民主基金会首席执行官杜博维茨认为,在所有政府官员中,庞培是“最安全,最擅长指导特朗普的”。因此,如果特朗普厌倦了“移动军事”言论,博尔顿将首当其冲,而庞培可能会解体。

其次,在决策层面,更合理的声音正在影响“梦武二人”的地位。美国副总统伯恩斯和代理国防部长埃斯珀等高级副总统公开表示,美国不想与伊朗作战。埃斯珀也希望转向盟友与伊朗打交道。他最近在布鲁塞尔北约总部表示,盟国应该在必要时与美国一起谴责伊朗,并要求盟国考虑与美国共同保护霍尔木兹海峡并寻求盟国的帮助。避免与伊朗发生军事冲突的更具外交途径。

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更重要的是,“主人和派系”也得到了特朗普总统的支持。特朗普一再公开表示他不愿对伊朗使用武力。他批评博尔顿和庞培把事情“看作是一场冲突”。无论如何,他希望与自己的商标达成“协议”。该协议与奥巴马的伊朗核协议基本相同吗?总统的反对使“梦武二人组”的声音略显边缘,地位受到挑战。

第三,博尔顿的立场似乎处于危险之中,关于他离任辞职的谣言猖獗。

When Trump met Kim Jong-un at the Panmunjom store on June 30, the media noticed that Bolton did not appear. He was sent to Mongolia to discuss security issues. Bolton’s position is at stake, because Trump is tired of lobbying him for a war with Iran. Trump’s soft attitude toward North Korea is very different from Bolton’s claim, which may mean that the hardliner’s Bolton has been excluded from the decision-making circle of the DPRK policy.

In Panmunjom, accompanying Trump is the usual "Fox News" host Tucker Carlson who often criticizes Bolton with words such as "war madman" and "official locust." The United States《每日野兽报》said that Carlson is actually Trump's "shadow staff", he is similar to Trump's current foreign policy stance, privately persuading Trump not to use force against Iran, Trump is in Iran The question is very much attached to Carlson's voice, and the media has also produced speculations about whether Carlson will be on the top.

The US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook and the Special Representative for North Korea, Stephen Bigen, have also gained Trump’s trust and their status has been consolidated. After meeting at Panmunjom, Trump said, "Beagan will negotiate on behalf of me. He has a heart that loves the United States and North Korea."

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At present, the voice of the use of force against Iran does not account for the mainstream of decision-making, so Bolton and Pompeo show a single shadow. Trump said: "The sanctions are still going on. I am not in a hurry. I am not in a hurry to Iran. If you are in a hurry, you will get into trouble." More importantly, Pentagon officials believe that the Middle East may happen. The conflict will once again distract the US military's focus on the Asia-Pacific region, and it is difficult for the US military to deal with major wars in the two regions at the same time.

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